Trading news

USD/CAD trades around 1.3740 on Monday at the time of writing, down modestly by 0.05% on the day. The pullback in the US Dollar (USD) against its major peers is weighing on the pair after signs of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights that the global bond selloff is approaching levels where borrowing costs exceed nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth.

Standard Chartered’s Madhur Jha assesses how the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the current energy shock could challenge AI optimism. The bank highlights near-term risks to semiconductor input supplies and longer-term risks to AI investment and demand.

United States NAHB Housing Market Index above expectations (35) in May: Actual (37)

Nordea's Chief Economist Helge J. Pedersen argues that rapidly rising defense spending in Europe represents a historic fiscal expansion that can support GDP in the short term but raises medium‑term risks.

TD Securities strategists reiterate their view that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will likely need to raise the cash rate to 4.60% in this cycle. They note that the May policy statement suggests hesitation to hike in June, and expects the RBA minutes to clarify this.

Commerzbank’s Dr. Henry Hao notes that China’s post-Q1 recovery lost momentum in April, with industrial output at a three-year low and fixed-asset investment shrinking. Domestic consumption remains fragile as retail sales barely grew and youth unemployment rose.

Central banks are expected to increase their Gold purchases in 2026, analysts at Goldman Sachs say, supporting a much-needed boost to the precious metal toward the end of the year. 

ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report renewed strength in European gas, with TTF breaking above EUR50/MWh as Middle East risks persist.

Kit Juckes at Societe Generale highlights that EUR/USD has lost downward momentum after slipping from 1.18 to 1.16, despite risk-off conditions and tumbling sentiment indicators.

TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team notes a sharp bear steepening in US yields, with 30-year rates holding above 5% for four consecutive days for the first time since 2007. Markets now price in just over one additional Fed hike between July 2026 and June 2027.

Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $76.55 on Monday, up 0.80% on the day at the time of writing, as the white metal stabilizes after last week’s heavy sell-off.

MUFG’s Lee Hardman expects the British Pound (GBP) to stay on a softer footing as UK political uncertainty rises.

The US Dollar (USD) hesitates against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Monday after rallying nearly 1.2% in the four previous trading days.

BNY's Bob Savage highlights that the Iran conflict, a drone attack in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and refinery constraints are pushing Brent toward $110, with fears of airline shutdowns and refinery limits.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes Japan is close to the global ‘danger zone’ in bonds as more JGB issuance is planned to fund additional spending. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has called for a supplementary budget to offset higher commodity prices linked to the Iran war.

United Overseas Bank's (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann turn more negative on AUD/USD after a sharp sell-off toward 0.7140. They now sees a real chance of testing and breaking the major 0.7100 support, with 0.7065 as the next downside level.

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading flat above $4,500 on Monday, stabilising after a four-day sell-off from $4,770. Investors await developments in the Middle East conflict as a spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry affirmed earlier on the day that the US-Iran talks are ongoing.

The AUD/USD pair trades flat around 0.7150 during the European trading session on Monday after recovering significant early losses. The Aussie pair bounces back as the US Dollar (USD) turns upside down on renewed hopes that the United States (US) and Iran will reach a deal soon.

Deutsche Bank’s Sanjay Raja expects the United Kingdom (UK) labour market to remain weak after a surprise drop in the jobless rate driven by self-employment.