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6 Feb 2015
BNPP: US NFP might register a weak print – eFXnews
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The eFXnews Team shares BNP Paribas' forecast for the US NFP and other employment data, with the bank predicting the payrolls to print a weaker figure of 220k.
Key Quotes
“Our economists forecast a 220k payroll print today, revised down from 250k following the soft employment component of the non-manufacturing ISM. This would mark the softest month since August 2014, but would still leave payrolls running at a strong pace from an historical perspective.”
“Moreover, we expect a further decline in the jobless rate to new cycle lows of 5.5% and look for average hourly earnings to rebound sharply from the weak December readings.”
“The combination of rebounding wage growth and the jobless rate fast approaching Fed estimates of NAIRU should more than offset the impact of slowing payroll growth as far as Fed expectations are concerned.”
“Our economists have pushed back their expectations for the start of the Fed hiking cycle to September from June previously, implying less immediate impulse from US rates for the USD. This is still earlier than is fully priced by rates markets and we think risk reward remains attractive for staying long USD.”
This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.
Key Quotes
“Our economists forecast a 220k payroll print today, revised down from 250k following the soft employment component of the non-manufacturing ISM. This would mark the softest month since August 2014, but would still leave payrolls running at a strong pace from an historical perspective.”
“Moreover, we expect a further decline in the jobless rate to new cycle lows of 5.5% and look for average hourly earnings to rebound sharply from the weak December readings.”
“The combination of rebounding wage growth and the jobless rate fast approaching Fed estimates of NAIRU should more than offset the impact of slowing payroll growth as far as Fed expectations are concerned.”
“Our economists have pushed back their expectations for the start of the Fed hiking cycle to September from June previously, implying less immediate impulse from US rates for the USD. This is still earlier than is fully priced by rates markets and we think risk reward remains attractive for staying long USD.”
This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.