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6 Feb 2015
Weaker US payrolls might push EUR/USD higher – Growth Aces
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Growth Aces Research Team reviews the US trade balance data, and further predicts US NFP to come out weak, expecting this to boost EUR/USD higher.
Key Quotes
“U.S. macroeconomic data are getting weaker. The U.S. trade deficit in December widened sharply to USD 46.6 bn, its highest level since November 2012, as a stronger USD appeared to suck in imports and weigh on exports.”
“We should notice that December's shortfall was wider than the government had assumed when it reported last week that GDP had expanded at a 2.6% rate in the fourth quarter. Trade was estimated to have subtracted 1.02 percentage point from GDP growth.”
“The revision of U.S. GDP growth for the fourth quarter will be negative.”
“Another report showed that initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 11k to a seasonally adjusted 278k for the week ended January 31.”
“Today’s market will focus on U.S. non-farm payroll data. The market consensus shows that non-farm payrolls increased 234k in January. The estimates of our analytical team show that the reading could be lower.”
“As we expect lower U.S. non-farm payrolls, it is justified to keep our long EUR/USD position with the target of 1.2650.”
Key Quotes
“U.S. macroeconomic data are getting weaker. The U.S. trade deficit in December widened sharply to USD 46.6 bn, its highest level since November 2012, as a stronger USD appeared to suck in imports and weigh on exports.”
“We should notice that December's shortfall was wider than the government had assumed when it reported last week that GDP had expanded at a 2.6% rate in the fourth quarter. Trade was estimated to have subtracted 1.02 percentage point from GDP growth.”
“The revision of U.S. GDP growth for the fourth quarter will be negative.”
“Another report showed that initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 11k to a seasonally adjusted 278k for the week ended January 31.”
“Today’s market will focus on U.S. non-farm payroll data. The market consensus shows that non-farm payrolls increased 234k in January. The estimates of our analytical team show that the reading could be lower.”
“As we expect lower U.S. non-farm payrolls, it is justified to keep our long EUR/USD position with the target of 1.2650.”