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6 Feb 2015
Things about to get bullish in the UK? - TDS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities noted the up and coming key events from the UK next week.
Key Quotes:
"Bank of England Inflation Report (Thurs 12 Feb): Our base case is for a slightly hawkish outcome. Although near-term CPI will be revised substantially lower, the BoE has already spent a lot of time talking through this. And with growth forecasts likely to be pushed a little higher, due to the “unambiguously positive” boost from lower energy prices and the stimulus from lower rates, the risks seem to be tilted toward 2y ahead inflation forecasts being nudged a little higher, implicitly signalling that markets have pushed back BoE rate hikes a little too far."
"Industrial Production (Tues 10 Feb): Markets are looking for a soft IP outcome for December, with both headline and manufacturing down -0.1% M/M. This is already stronger than the -0.4% result for IP that the ONS had factored into its estimate for Q4 GDP, but we still see slight further upside risk from here and look for a small gain instead."
"Construction Output (Fri 13 Feb): After a decline in three of the last four months, we look for construction activity to end the year on better footing with a 2.0% gain in December. This is softer than both the 2.8% result that the ONS had pencilled in for Dec, and the 2.7% consensus estimate, but squares better with the other housing sector data that we’ve seen."
Key Quotes:
"Bank of England Inflation Report (Thurs 12 Feb): Our base case is for a slightly hawkish outcome. Although near-term CPI will be revised substantially lower, the BoE has already spent a lot of time talking through this. And with growth forecasts likely to be pushed a little higher, due to the “unambiguously positive” boost from lower energy prices and the stimulus from lower rates, the risks seem to be tilted toward 2y ahead inflation forecasts being nudged a little higher, implicitly signalling that markets have pushed back BoE rate hikes a little too far."
"Industrial Production (Tues 10 Feb): Markets are looking for a soft IP outcome for December, with both headline and manufacturing down -0.1% M/M. This is already stronger than the -0.4% result for IP that the ONS had factored into its estimate for Q4 GDP, but we still see slight further upside risk from here and look for a small gain instead."
"Construction Output (Fri 13 Feb): After a decline in three of the last four months, we look for construction activity to end the year on better footing with a 2.0% gain in December. This is softer than both the 2.8% result that the ONS had pencilled in for Dec, and the 2.7% consensus estimate, but squares better with the other housing sector data that we’ve seen."