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9 Feb 2015
More easing expected in China, growth to tick lover – Deutsche Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Economists at the German lender Deutsche Bank expect the Chinese growth to slow its pace in H1 and the PBoC to ease further in the upcoming periods.
Key Quotes
“The RRR cut is broadly in line with our expectation, though it happened one month earlier than we expected”.
“We reiterate our view that the economic growth will surprise on the downside in H1. We cut our GDP forecast for Q1 to 6.8% on January 5 (consensus 7.2%), as the economy faces a "double whammy" due to property slowdown and a fiscal slide”.
“We expect more easing measures to come. We continue to expect another RRR cut of 50bp in Q2. We also continue to expect two interest rate cuts, but we revise our call on timing, and expect the two cuts to happen in March and Q2, instead of Q2 and Q3”.
“The RRR cut likely releases liquidity of RMB640bn into the bank sector. We think the impact on the real economy is positive but it is not enough to stabilize the economy, as it helps to raise loan supply but loan demand may remain weak”.
“We expect the fiscal stance to loosen in coming months, with central government fiscal spending picking up and quasi-fiscal spending through policy banks rising. If such fiscal policy loosening does not materialize, we see downside risks to our GDP forecast of 7% for 2015”.
Key Quotes
“The RRR cut is broadly in line with our expectation, though it happened one month earlier than we expected”.
“We reiterate our view that the economic growth will surprise on the downside in H1. We cut our GDP forecast for Q1 to 6.8% on January 5 (consensus 7.2%), as the economy faces a "double whammy" due to property slowdown and a fiscal slide”.
“We expect more easing measures to come. We continue to expect another RRR cut of 50bp in Q2. We also continue to expect two interest rate cuts, but we revise our call on timing, and expect the two cuts to happen in March and Q2, instead of Q2 and Q3”.
“The RRR cut likely releases liquidity of RMB640bn into the bank sector. We think the impact on the real economy is positive but it is not enough to stabilize the economy, as it helps to raise loan supply but loan demand may remain weak”.
“We expect the fiscal stance to loosen in coming months, with central government fiscal spending picking up and quasi-fiscal spending through policy banks rising. If such fiscal policy loosening does not materialize, we see downside risks to our GDP forecast of 7% for 2015”.