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9 Feb 2015
Oil prices still the core driver of CAD near-term – Scotiabank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, comments that CAD is up, digesting stronger oil prices and a slightly improved global growth outlook.
Key Quotes
“CAD is up, but has traded in a relatively narrow range during the Asian and European sessions.”
“Oil prices are up, flirting with a break above the 50‐day MA, which would mark an important turn in oil prices and CAD.”
“Correlations between CAD and oil remain high; however on short term metrics they are well off their highs. The rolling 30‐day correlation between oil and CAD has dropped down to 0.44, the lowest level in almost three months. As oil has rallied over 20% from its lows, CAD is up just 2.5%, in part reflecting ongoing uncertainty in where oil prices will ultimately settle.”
“We continue to see oil prices as one of the core drivers of near‐term CAD.”
“Employment data was disappointing in the details for Canada and warns of an uneven backdrop. This week in Canada the focus will be on housing data, starting today with housing starts; followed by manufacturing data to be released on Friday.”
“USDCAD short‐term technicals: mixed—USDCAD has shifted back from its highs and the MACD has shifted to a sell signal; however other studies have not turned and the candlestick pattern reflects some indecision with large intraday moves, simply retraced the following day.”
“Support lies at the recent low of 1.2352 and resistance lies at the recent high of 1.2644.”
Key Quotes
“CAD is up, but has traded in a relatively narrow range during the Asian and European sessions.”
“Oil prices are up, flirting with a break above the 50‐day MA, which would mark an important turn in oil prices and CAD.”
“Correlations between CAD and oil remain high; however on short term metrics they are well off their highs. The rolling 30‐day correlation between oil and CAD has dropped down to 0.44, the lowest level in almost three months. As oil has rallied over 20% from its lows, CAD is up just 2.5%, in part reflecting ongoing uncertainty in where oil prices will ultimately settle.”
“We continue to see oil prices as one of the core drivers of near‐term CAD.”
“Employment data was disappointing in the details for Canada and warns of an uneven backdrop. This week in Canada the focus will be on housing data, starting today with housing starts; followed by manufacturing data to be released on Friday.”
“USDCAD short‐term technicals: mixed—USDCAD has shifted back from its highs and the MACD has shifted to a sell signal; however other studies have not turned and the candlestick pattern reflects some indecision with large intraday moves, simply retraced the following day.”
“Support lies at the recent low of 1.2352 and resistance lies at the recent high of 1.2644.”