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9 Feb 2015
Key events for EM in the week ahead – BBH
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman Team reviews the data in the week ahead for Emerging Market nations.
Key Quotes
“China reports January CPI Tuesday, expected to rise 1.0% y/y vs. 1.5% in December. China could report new loan and money supply data this week, but no date has been set. More easing measures are expected in the coming weeks, as the focus of policy is clearly on boosting growth.”
“South Africa reports Q4 unemployment and December manufacturing production Tuesday. The former is expected at 25.6% while the latter is expected to contract -1.0% y/y. Slow growth and falling inflation should keep the SARB on hold for now, but it move into dovish mode as the year progresses.”
“Brazil reports December retail sales Wednesday, expected to rise 2.6% y/y vs. 1.0% in November. Overall, the backdrop remains grim. Sluggish growth, high inflation, twin deficits, and power shortages are all contributing to negative Brazil sentiment. COPOM is likely to deliver another hike at its next meeting March 4.”
“Hungary reports January CPI Wednesday, expected at -1.1% y/y vs. -0.9% in December. The central bank also releases its minutes Wednesday. It reports Q4 GDP Friday, expected to rise 2.7% y/y vs. 3.2.% in Q3. Consensus is for steady policy, but we think there is potential for a dovish surprise.”
“India reports December IP Thursday, expected to rise 1.6% y/y vs. 3.8% in November. It also reports January CPI, expected to rise 5.6% y/y vs. 5.0% in December. If so, this would be the second straight month of acceleration and would justify the RBI’s cautious approach. Easing is likely to continue this year, but at a very modest pace.”
Key Quotes
“China reports January CPI Tuesday, expected to rise 1.0% y/y vs. 1.5% in December. China could report new loan and money supply data this week, but no date has been set. More easing measures are expected in the coming weeks, as the focus of policy is clearly on boosting growth.”
“South Africa reports Q4 unemployment and December manufacturing production Tuesday. The former is expected at 25.6% while the latter is expected to contract -1.0% y/y. Slow growth and falling inflation should keep the SARB on hold for now, but it move into dovish mode as the year progresses.”
“Brazil reports December retail sales Wednesday, expected to rise 2.6% y/y vs. 1.0% in November. Overall, the backdrop remains grim. Sluggish growth, high inflation, twin deficits, and power shortages are all contributing to negative Brazil sentiment. COPOM is likely to deliver another hike at its next meeting March 4.”
“Hungary reports January CPI Wednesday, expected at -1.1% y/y vs. -0.9% in December. The central bank also releases its minutes Wednesday. It reports Q4 GDP Friday, expected to rise 2.7% y/y vs. 3.2.% in Q3. Consensus is for steady policy, but we think there is potential for a dovish surprise.”
“India reports December IP Thursday, expected to rise 1.6% y/y vs. 3.8% in November. It also reports January CPI, expected to rise 5.6% y/y vs. 5.0% in December. If so, this would be the second straight month of acceleration and would justify the RBI’s cautious approach. Easing is likely to continue this year, but at a very modest pace.”