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10 Feb 2015
EUR/USD: Bears looking for a good excuse to add - FXStreet
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet noted that EUR/USD closed the day with some limited gains above the 1.1300 level, but not before posting a fresh 2-week low of 1.1269.
Key Quotes:
"The decline however, was quickly reversed at the base of this month range, as the pair has been finding buying interest around the 1.1250/60 area ever since late January. The key market mover this Monday was Greece and its ruling party anti-austerity plan, putting back on the table the chances of a ´Grexit.´ Greek stocks´ market fell 5% while 10Y yields rose to 11% after PM Tsipras continues with his pre-election objectives and refuses to take further bailouts from the Troika."
"The EUR/USD however, has become overcrowded to the downside, as the latest COT report shows shorts stand at the second record high. Technically, the 1 hour chart shows that the price recovered above its 20 SMA, although indicators stand flat around their mid-lines. In the 4 hours chart the overall technical stance is bearish, with the price below a bearish 20 SMA and Momentum indicator heading south below 100."
"Nevertheless, the limited range the pair has since early February suggests the market needs a strong catalyst now to be able to extend the sell-off towards new lows. Stops lay below the 1.1250 level and if triggered, the pair could extend its decline below the 1.1200 figure during the upcoming sessions."
Key Quotes:
"The decline however, was quickly reversed at the base of this month range, as the pair has been finding buying interest around the 1.1250/60 area ever since late January. The key market mover this Monday was Greece and its ruling party anti-austerity plan, putting back on the table the chances of a ´Grexit.´ Greek stocks´ market fell 5% while 10Y yields rose to 11% after PM Tsipras continues with his pre-election objectives and refuses to take further bailouts from the Troika."
"The EUR/USD however, has become overcrowded to the downside, as the latest COT report shows shorts stand at the second record high. Technically, the 1 hour chart shows that the price recovered above its 20 SMA, although indicators stand flat around their mid-lines. In the 4 hours chart the overall technical stance is bearish, with the price below a bearish 20 SMA and Momentum indicator heading south below 100."
"Nevertheless, the limited range the pair has since early February suggests the market needs a strong catalyst now to be able to extend the sell-off towards new lows. Stops lay below the 1.1250 level and if triggered, the pair could extend its decline below the 1.1200 figure during the upcoming sessions."