Back
10 Feb 2015
US NFIB, time for a pause? – ING
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Rob Carnell of ING, previews today’s NFIB release, and further comments that since the larger firm ISM indices have given back ground recently, NFIB could follow suit.
Key Quotes
“The small firm NFIB business survey is out today, and after a spell of strong increases, we believe this month it may mark time. Larger firm surveys such as the Manufacturing ISM have dipped sharply recently. And whilst these surveys can diverge for long periods, the recent run of good small firm data does look due a pause.”
“Earlier in the week, the employment index of this survey also dipped back, and this is also sometimes a good indicator of the direction of the overall index. This should not be considered a substantial problem, however. The survey is still at a level consistent with robust growth, and the employment index does not seem to be causing the labour market any problems, judging by the recent payrolls release.”
“What could become a problem is if this turns out to be more than a temporary dip, but it will be some months before we know whether this is the case.”
“In the meantime, a soft reading may lead to some reversal of the post-payrolls Treasury sell-off.”
Key Quotes
“The small firm NFIB business survey is out today, and after a spell of strong increases, we believe this month it may mark time. Larger firm surveys such as the Manufacturing ISM have dipped sharply recently. And whilst these surveys can diverge for long periods, the recent run of good small firm data does look due a pause.”
“Earlier in the week, the employment index of this survey also dipped back, and this is also sometimes a good indicator of the direction of the overall index. This should not be considered a substantial problem, however. The survey is still at a level consistent with robust growth, and the employment index does not seem to be causing the labour market any problems, judging by the recent payrolls release.”
“What could become a problem is if this turns out to be more than a temporary dip, but it will be some months before we know whether this is the case.”
“In the meantime, a soft reading may lead to some reversal of the post-payrolls Treasury sell-off.”