8 Jun 2015
Weak Chinese trade dynamics continue in May – ING
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Tim Condon of ING, reviews the Chinese imports and exports data release, and further expectc the full-year surplus to be closer to $600bn than $500bn.
Key Quotes
“The 2.5% contraction in US$-value exports in May was smaller than expected but the 17.6% import contraction was much larger than expected. Year-to-date export growth narrowed to +0.7% from 1.6% in April, and import growth to -17.8% from -17.3%. Crude oil imports, which were 11.5% of total 2014 imports, accounted for 5.2 ppts of the year-to-date import contraction.”
“As elsewhere, lower commodity prices and contagion from export weakness on domestic spending have widened the trade surplus. May’s $59.5bn surplus was the third-largest ever and put the year-to-date surplus at $217.4 billion, $145bn wider on the year. We expect the full-year surplus to be closer to $600bn than $500bn ($383bn inv2014).”
Key Quotes
“The 2.5% contraction in US$-value exports in May was smaller than expected but the 17.6% import contraction was much larger than expected. Year-to-date export growth narrowed to +0.7% from 1.6% in April, and import growth to -17.8% from -17.3%. Crude oil imports, which were 11.5% of total 2014 imports, accounted for 5.2 ppts of the year-to-date import contraction.”
“As elsewhere, lower commodity prices and contagion from export weakness on domestic spending have widened the trade surplus. May’s $59.5bn surplus was the third-largest ever and put the year-to-date surplus at $217.4 billion, $145bn wider on the year. We expect the full-year surplus to be closer to $600bn than $500bn ($383bn inv2014).”