8 Jun 2015
Downside risks to Chinese inflation data – ING
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Tim Condon of ING, previews the Chinese CPI data to be released tomorrow, seeing downside risks to the consensus forecast of 1.3%.
Key Quotes
“CPI and PPI data are due tomorrow at 9.30am. The consensus forecasts are 1.3% for the CPI (prior 1.5%) and -4.5% for the PPI (prior -4.6%). We consider the CPI forecast subject to downside risk from the seasonal decline in the fresh vegetable subcomponent.”
“CPI inflation slowed to 1.3% YoY YTD in April from 2% in 2014. The food component contributed 0.3ppt of the slowdown. The energy-related housing and transport components were responsible for most of the drop in non-food component inflation. We reiterate our 1% 2015 inflation forecast (Bloomberg consensus 1.5%).”
“We think the balance of risks for the PBOC is on growth. We reiterate our forecast of one 25bp PBOC policy rate cut and 50bp RRR cut per quarter in the next two quarters.”
Key Quotes
“CPI and PPI data are due tomorrow at 9.30am. The consensus forecasts are 1.3% for the CPI (prior 1.5%) and -4.5% for the PPI (prior -4.6%). We consider the CPI forecast subject to downside risk from the seasonal decline in the fresh vegetable subcomponent.”
“CPI inflation slowed to 1.3% YoY YTD in April from 2% in 2014. The food component contributed 0.3ppt of the slowdown. The energy-related housing and transport components were responsible for most of the drop in non-food component inflation. We reiterate our 1% 2015 inflation forecast (Bloomberg consensus 1.5%).”
“We think the balance of risks for the PBOC is on growth. We reiterate our forecast of one 25bp PBOC policy rate cut and 50bp RRR cut per quarter in the next two quarters.”