8 Jun 2015
Focus remains on US Retail sales data – BBH
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman Team previews the US retail sales data ahead and further comments on the consumption and its contribution to US GDP growth.
Key Quotes
“The most important US economic data in the coming days will be the May retail sales data. Recall that after the strongest report in a year in March (1.2%), US consumers rested in April and retail sales were flat. They likely returned in May. The headline rate will be flattered by the strong auto sales that have already been reported. The components used for GDP calculations are expected to rise 0.5%. The monthly average in Q1 was 0.02%. Assuming the consensus report in May, and a flat June, the monthly average in Q2 would be 0.16%. This means that consumption is likely to be a bigger contributor to Q2 GDP than Q1, and we have already learned that trade is exerting a smaller drag.”
“The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model says the US economic growth is tracking 1.1% Q2 GDP, and this is likely be revised higher after the retail sales report.”
Key Quotes
“The most important US economic data in the coming days will be the May retail sales data. Recall that after the strongest report in a year in March (1.2%), US consumers rested in April and retail sales were flat. They likely returned in May. The headline rate will be flattered by the strong auto sales that have already been reported. The components used for GDP calculations are expected to rise 0.5%. The monthly average in Q1 was 0.02%. Assuming the consensus report in May, and a flat June, the monthly average in Q2 would be 0.16%. This means that consumption is likely to be a bigger contributor to Q2 GDP than Q1, and we have already learned that trade is exerting a smaller drag.”
“The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model says the US economic growth is tracking 1.1% Q2 GDP, and this is likely be revised higher after the retail sales report.”