8 Jun 2015
Easing cycle is not over in Hungary – TDS
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The EM Research team at TD Securities sees the Hungarian central bank (NBH) lowering its benchmark rate at its June meeting.
Key Quotes
“Consensus expects Hungary May CPI inflation to move up to +0.1% Y/Y from a prior –0.3%. This will be the first time since August 2014 that the annual inflation rate will be in positive territory”.
“However, we do not think that the end of deflation will mark the end of the NBH easing cycle just yet”.
“The May MPC statement still foresaw “loose monetary conditions for an extended period.”
“We think that the NBH will cut its policy rate in June one more time by 15bps bringing it to a final 1.5%, although the possibility of further cuts cannot be ruled out”.
Key Quotes
“Consensus expects Hungary May CPI inflation to move up to +0.1% Y/Y from a prior –0.3%. This will be the first time since August 2014 that the annual inflation rate will be in positive territory”.
“However, we do not think that the end of deflation will mark the end of the NBH easing cycle just yet”.
“The May MPC statement still foresaw “loose monetary conditions for an extended period.”
“We think that the NBH will cut its policy rate in June one more time by 15bps bringing it to a final 1.5%, although the possibility of further cuts cannot be ruled out”.