9 Jun 2015
EUR/USD: Upside risks intact, 1.14/15 key - JPMorgan
FXStreet (Bali) - Niall O'Connor, FX Strategist at JP Morgan Securities, notes the upside risks in EUR/USD are intact, adding that last week’s price action for EUR/USD highlights the importance of the 1.14/1.15 resistance zone as breaks remain necessary to confirm a deeper recovery phase.
Key Quotes
"While the positive backdrop for the USD is intact, the improved setup for EUR/USD and EUR crosses highlights the risk of that the USD rally may narrow."
"For EUR/USD, the failure to extend below the important 1.0815/1.0744 support zone (76.4% retracement from March low) implies a growing risk that a higher-low has formed within the broader corrective process."
"Still, important resistance levels are holding as the focus is now on the 1.1468/1.1534 resistance zone (May./Feb highs) which will define whether another leg to this advance is underway."
"Given the proximity to these important recent levels, the extent of the recent rally and the current overbought setup, some near term pause seems likely to develop as key support levels remain well defined."
"Upside breaks of this key resistance area would confirm the onset of a deeper recovery into the 1.18 resistance zone (38.2% retracement May ’14 and 200-day moving average). We view the bullish shift and breakout through key levels for the EUR crosses as part of a deeper corrective phase."
Key Quotes
"While the positive backdrop for the USD is intact, the improved setup for EUR/USD and EUR crosses highlights the risk of that the USD rally may narrow."
"For EUR/USD, the failure to extend below the important 1.0815/1.0744 support zone (76.4% retracement from March low) implies a growing risk that a higher-low has formed within the broader corrective process."
"Still, important resistance levels are holding as the focus is now on the 1.1468/1.1534 resistance zone (May./Feb highs) which will define whether another leg to this advance is underway."
"Given the proximity to these important recent levels, the extent of the recent rally and the current overbought setup, some near term pause seems likely to develop as key support levels remain well defined."
"Upside breaks of this key resistance area would confirm the onset of a deeper recovery into the 1.18 resistance zone (38.2% retracement May ’14 and 200-day moving average). We view the bullish shift and breakout through key levels for the EUR crosses as part of a deeper corrective phase."