9 Jun 2015
Oil supply risk overshadowing bullish EIA numbers – KBC
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The KBC Bank Research Team comments on the key developments in the oil market.
Key Quotes
“Oil was under modest pressure on Monday. Apart from generally more cautious stance towards risk, a set of Chinese macro data weighed on price. Namely, headline imports shrunk by 17.6% Y/Y in May and crude imports fell by 11% Y/Y which naturally raised question about China’s actual oil consumption and its possible impact on crude prices in months ahead. This holds especially in an environment of high global oil production – recall that the OPEC meeting last Friday brought no changes in the cartel’s policy.”
“Moreover, risk that the overall OPEC oil production could even increase persist as a prospective agreement between P5+1 and Iran on its nuclear program would result in higher crude oil production and exports from the country.”
“The above mentioned factors overshadowed bullish report released by the EIA. A so called Drilling Productivity Report which deals with production of oil and gas in the key shale areas showed that the EIA expects decline in shale oil production in the third consecutive month in July.”
“Let us however recall that jury is still out on the actual impact of low oil prices on US production and model-based forecasts of the EIA have had a tendency to undershoot the later released estimates of actual US oil production in the recent months.”
Key Quotes
“Oil was under modest pressure on Monday. Apart from generally more cautious stance towards risk, a set of Chinese macro data weighed on price. Namely, headline imports shrunk by 17.6% Y/Y in May and crude imports fell by 11% Y/Y which naturally raised question about China’s actual oil consumption and its possible impact on crude prices in months ahead. This holds especially in an environment of high global oil production – recall that the OPEC meeting last Friday brought no changes in the cartel’s policy.”
“Moreover, risk that the overall OPEC oil production could even increase persist as a prospective agreement between P5+1 and Iran on its nuclear program would result in higher crude oil production and exports from the country.”
“The above mentioned factors overshadowed bullish report released by the EIA. A so called Drilling Productivity Report which deals with production of oil and gas in the key shale areas showed that the EIA expects decline in shale oil production in the third consecutive month in July.”
“Let us however recall that jury is still out on the actual impact of low oil prices on US production and model-based forecasts of the EIA have had a tendency to undershoot the later released estimates of actual US oil production in the recent months.”