9 Jun 2015
USD/JPY points to 126.00 – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Morten Helt, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, believes spot could advance to the 126.00 area in the upcoming months.
Key Quotes
“We continue to see divergence between BoJ and Fed policy acting as a driver of USD/JPY upside”.
“In the short term, however, it is unlikely to be more BoJ easing that will push USD/JPY out of its narrow trading range so far in 2015”.
“Instead, we expect the next increase to be supported by rising US interest rate expectations which we expect to unfold in the coming months following a recovery in US macro data”.
“We still target USD/JPY at 126 in 6M but expect the next rally to be succeeded by another period of range trading towards year-end as it becomes clear the BoJ is done for now”.
“Additional BoJ easing could be a catalyst of more yen weakness, which combined with a less bearish yen positioning has increased risks of our 6- and 12-month targets being reached earlier than we project”.
Key Quotes
“We continue to see divergence between BoJ and Fed policy acting as a driver of USD/JPY upside”.
“In the short term, however, it is unlikely to be more BoJ easing that will push USD/JPY out of its narrow trading range so far in 2015”.
“Instead, we expect the next increase to be supported by rising US interest rate expectations which we expect to unfold in the coming months following a recovery in US macro data”.
“We still target USD/JPY at 126 in 6M but expect the next rally to be succeeded by another period of range trading towards year-end as it becomes clear the BoJ is done for now”.
“Additional BoJ easing could be a catalyst of more yen weakness, which combined with a less bearish yen positioning has increased risks of our 6- and 12-month targets being reached earlier than we project”.