10 Jun 2015
AUD/USD: Biased towards a break of mid-0.75s - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, expects any AUD/USD rally to keep failing around 0.7750-0.7800, for an eventual break of Mar/Apr lows in the mid-0.75s, although Sean acknowledges that it could take several attempts before the bear move gathers momentum.
Key Quotes
"AUD/USD should benefit near term from the lack of a “live” RBA meeting and a better tone to key commodity prices."
"But these positives are probably best seen as limiting downside rather than being sufficient to drive net gains multi-week."
"Australia’s growth pulse should remain sluggish enough (and inflation low enough) to keep markets leaning clearly towards the risk of further RBA easing, while China’s industrial activity is unlikely to accelerate soon, capping the commodity recovery."
"In the US, our data surprise index warns of better data momentum in coming weeks, which should reinforce our view of a Sep Fed rate hike."
"This should leave AUD/USD rallies failing around 0.7750-0.7800, biased towards a break of MarApr lows in the mid-0.75s, though such a break could take several attempts."
Key Quotes
"AUD/USD should benefit near term from the lack of a “live” RBA meeting and a better tone to key commodity prices."
"But these positives are probably best seen as limiting downside rather than being sufficient to drive net gains multi-week."
"Australia’s growth pulse should remain sluggish enough (and inflation low enough) to keep markets leaning clearly towards the risk of further RBA easing, while China’s industrial activity is unlikely to accelerate soon, capping the commodity recovery."
"In the US, our data surprise index warns of better data momentum in coming weeks, which should reinforce our view of a Sep Fed rate hike."
"This should leave AUD/USD rallies failing around 0.7750-0.7800, biased towards a break of MarApr lows in the mid-0.75s, though such a break could take several attempts."