10 Jun 2015
NZD/USD seen at 0.69 medium term – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Senior Analyst at Danske Bank Christin Tuxen has suggested the pair could slip towards 0.69 in a 6-month horizon.
Key Quotes
“The significant terms-of-trade shock which NZD has suffered during the course of the past year is now feeding through to the growth and inflation picture for New Zealand”.
“RBNZ has shifted to a clear easing bias and the market is pricing Wheeler’s action to a ‘lowflation’ outlook”.
“As we see USD strength returning in the near future ahead of a first Fed hike in September, NZD/USD is set to move lower on diverging monetary policy”.
“We have lowered our near-term forecasts a little and see the cross hitting 0.69 in 6M (prev. 0.71). On a 12M horizon we do, however, expect USD strength to fade, and with upside risks to agricultural prices from a structural point of view, we expect NZD/USD to stabilise around the 0.70 mark and keep our 12M forecast unchanged at this level”.
Key Quotes
“The significant terms-of-trade shock which NZD has suffered during the course of the past year is now feeding through to the growth and inflation picture for New Zealand”.
“RBNZ has shifted to a clear easing bias and the market is pricing Wheeler’s action to a ‘lowflation’ outlook”.
“As we see USD strength returning in the near future ahead of a first Fed hike in September, NZD/USD is set to move lower on diverging monetary policy”.
“We have lowered our near-term forecasts a little and see the cross hitting 0.69 in 6M (prev. 0.71). On a 12M horizon we do, however, expect USD strength to fade, and with upside risks to agricultural prices from a structural point of view, we expect NZD/USD to stabilise around the 0.70 mark and keep our 12M forecast unchanged at this level”.