11 Jun 2015
Aus jobs, China, US retail sales eyed - Rabobank
FXStreet (Bali) - Australian jobs, Chinese data and US retail sales will be the main focus today, notes Rabobank.
Key Quotes
"Today we have Aussie labour force. Consensus is 15.0K, but any shocks (always possible with this volatile series) on either side are likely to have a significant impact in terms of expectations of what the RBA is thinking of doing next."
"After that we get a slew of Chinese data (retail sales; industrial production; fixed asset investment) that will in turn help determine when the PBOC next tries to stimulate the slowing economy – that is above and beyond the stock market, which is pretty well stimulated already, with Shenzhen up another 2.0% yesterday, for example. However, don’t expect anything much to happen on the FX front. CNY’s response to all the FX and data volatility we have seen of late has been minimal, in what is a de facto ‘shock and meh’ exchange rate policy."
"The biggest draw today are US retail sales, where consensus is 1.2% MoM headline and 0.8% ex-autos showing the continual belief that the US consumer is going to roar back into life. Will today be that day, or will it be another case of ‘shock and eh?’, leaving economists and the Fed scratching their heads why consumers are being so “stingy” (to quote Jon Hilsenrath). We shall see, of course; but if distant New Zealand still borders the new normal, what about the US?"
Key Quotes
"Today we have Aussie labour force. Consensus is 15.0K, but any shocks (always possible with this volatile series) on either side are likely to have a significant impact in terms of expectations of what the RBA is thinking of doing next."
"After that we get a slew of Chinese data (retail sales; industrial production; fixed asset investment) that will in turn help determine when the PBOC next tries to stimulate the slowing economy – that is above and beyond the stock market, which is pretty well stimulated already, with Shenzhen up another 2.0% yesterday, for example. However, don’t expect anything much to happen on the FX front. CNY’s response to all the FX and data volatility we have seen of late has been minimal, in what is a de facto ‘shock and meh’ exchange rate policy."
"The biggest draw today are US retail sales, where consensus is 1.2% MoM headline and 0.8% ex-autos showing the continual belief that the US consumer is going to roar back into life. Will today be that day, or will it be another case of ‘shock and eh?’, leaving economists and the Fed scratching their heads why consumers are being so “stingy” (to quote Jon Hilsenrath). We shall see, of course; but if distant New Zealand still borders the new normal, what about the US?"