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14 Aug 2015
EUR/USD forecast: focus on EMU’s CPI – Commerzbank and OCBC Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - EUR/USD is trading almost unchanged at the end of the week ahead of key releases in the euro area: Q2 GDP and July’s flash CPI.
Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, argued the pair “has faltered at the 1.1216 July peak for now. The intraday Elliott wave count is suggesting that dips lower will halt circa 1.1075/1.1035. Should we see the market stabilise here, the Elliott wave count is suggesting scope for a move towards the 1.1440/68 June high. We note the 200 day ma at 1.1370.While we would allow for a rise back to the 1.1370/1.1468 resistance area we look for the market to fail here and resume its longer term down trend”.
Furthermore, FX Strategist Emmanuel Ng at OCBC Bank suggested “With unwinding of EUR shorts moderating, the EUR-USD fell slightly in tandem with a stronger broad dollar on Thursday. Our view remains unchanged and the 55-day MA (1.1096) is expected to provide support on dips with resistance seen towards 1.1200 and then 1.1235. Structurally, the greenback may also be hampered with longer end yield differentials underpinning the pair”.
Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, argued the pair “has faltered at the 1.1216 July peak for now. The intraday Elliott wave count is suggesting that dips lower will halt circa 1.1075/1.1035. Should we see the market stabilise here, the Elliott wave count is suggesting scope for a move towards the 1.1440/68 June high. We note the 200 day ma at 1.1370.While we would allow for a rise back to the 1.1370/1.1468 resistance area we look for the market to fail here and resume its longer term down trend”.
Furthermore, FX Strategist Emmanuel Ng at OCBC Bank suggested “With unwinding of EUR shorts moderating, the EUR-USD fell slightly in tandem with a stronger broad dollar on Thursday. Our view remains unchanged and the 55-day MA (1.1096) is expected to provide support on dips with resistance seen towards 1.1200 and then 1.1235. Structurally, the greenback may also be hampered with longer end yield differentials underpinning the pair”.