Eurozone PMIs amongst market movers today – Danske Bank

According to analysts at Danske Bank, today's main event will be the release of manufacturing and services PMIs out of the euro area.

Key Quotes

“Before the meeting on Thursday, today's euro area PMIs will give ECB some vital insights into how the economy started into Q3 after the weak finish in Q2. A recent setback in global trade volumes and order-inventory leaves us to expect further downside in manufacturing PMIs, which we see falling to 47.2 in July.”

“The lot of the service sector, on the other hand, continues to hold up well, and we see scope for a further small improvement in Services PMI to 53.9 in July as new incoming business remains on an upward trend. That should keep the euro area economy out of recession in the near-term, but for the manufacturing sector the air is getting thinner.”

“We also get manufacturing and services PMIs out of the US and Japan. US Manufacturing PMI has been falling to the lowest levels in three years (last reading 50.6, consensus 51.0) and a disappointing reading may see markets yet again price in a higher probability of a cut larger than 25bp at the FOMC meeting later this month. Service PMI is also close to three-year lows. We call for a 25bp cut at the July meeting and a total of 75bp worth of Fed cuts this year (July, September and December).”