IDR: beware of seasonal weakness ahead – ANZ

ANZ analysts point out that the Indonesian rupiah (IDR) has displayed a strong historical tendency to weaken in the month of August.

Key Quotes

“While the timing of actual dividend payments from listed companies do not fit with the seasonal currency pattern, repatriation of accumulated dividends received could explain the August effect.”

“The upcoming rate cut from the US Federal Reserve, global investor demand for high yielding assets, and expectations of major economic reforms during President Jokowi’s second term could dampen this year’s seasonal weakness to some extent.”