AUD/JPY technical analysis: 4H 200MA, 4-week old support-line can trigger a pullback

• Repeated failures to slip beneath key supports join oversold RSI conditions to favor AUD/JPY pullback.
• The quote dropped after bearish statements from the RBA’s Governor Lowe’s speech.

Despite declining after the RBA Governor’s speech, AUD/JPY remains well above short-term key supports while making the rounds to 75.40 on early Thursday.

200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart (4H 200MA) at 75.34 and a 4-week old upward sloping trend-line near 75.25 become immediate downside barriers for the pair, failing to respect the same can drag price to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s late-June upside, at 74.82.

Not only frequent bounces off the nearby supports, but oversold conditions of 14-bar relative strength index (RSI) also increase the odds for the pair’s another U-turn.

In doing so, a horizontal-line connecting early-month high to recent low can become immediate resistance at 75.62, a break of which can trigger the quote’s recovery towards 76.00, 76.15 and the recent high near 76.30.

AUD/JPY 4-hour chart

Trend: Pullback expected