ECB: Scope for surprise - TDS

According to analysts at TD Securities, markets are looking for Germany's IFO index to slip a bit lower again in July, but that will likely be largely ignored ahead of the much more interesting ECB decision today.

Key Quotes

“We look for the ECB to keep rates on hold and alter its forward guidance, but think that the odds of a dovish surprise are at least twice as high as odds of a more hawkish surprise.”

“The press conference will bear close watching, since assuming the ECB doesn't already deliver a full easing package today (we attribute a 10% chance), that's where Draghi will likely give us a much better idea of what's to come in September.”

“We'll be looking for more insight into the floor for interest rates, potential QE, the level of concern around low inflation expectations, and reinforcing a "symmetric" inflation target.”

“Our base case sees a fairly muted market reaction in both FX and rates as it's largely in line with market expectations, but there is certainly a larger than usual scope for surprise.”