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2 Jun 2014
EUR shorts increased last week - Societe Generale
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale, noted the increase in EUR short positions, according to the last CFTC report.
Key Quotes
"CFTC positioning data for last Tuesday show that EUR shorts increased. They are back to levels which preceded the Euro bottoming-out after the last ECB rate cut in November, though relative to a longer-term history the short position is small."
"A 10-bp cut in both Refi and Deposit rates is universally expected this week, and the market is merrily muttering about what more the ECB can do. The result is that we may see a lack of trend for the next few days."
"SG Economists are looking for a targeted LTRO, an end to SMP sterilisation, and a EUR 300bn asset purchase programme, targeted at the private sector. That would amount to a slightly more aggressive package than the market is priced for."
"This would be risk-friendly, helping peripheral and financial sector debt and equity, rather than moving EUR/USD very far, though we remain seller of the Euro vs PLN, TRY, GBP and NOK and a short-covering rally in EUR/USD, would be a chance to sell. In the meantime, we watch peripheral European PMIs this morning and preliminary German CPI data for May. On which note, so far, a soft Saxony figure."
Key Quotes
"CFTC positioning data for last Tuesday show that EUR shorts increased. They are back to levels which preceded the Euro bottoming-out after the last ECB rate cut in November, though relative to a longer-term history the short position is small."
"A 10-bp cut in both Refi and Deposit rates is universally expected this week, and the market is merrily muttering about what more the ECB can do. The result is that we may see a lack of trend for the next few days."
"SG Economists are looking for a targeted LTRO, an end to SMP sterilisation, and a EUR 300bn asset purchase programme, targeted at the private sector. That would amount to a slightly more aggressive package than the market is priced for."
"This would be risk-friendly, helping peripheral and financial sector debt and equity, rather than moving EUR/USD very far, though we remain seller of the Euro vs PLN, TRY, GBP and NOK and a short-covering rally in EUR/USD, would be a chance to sell. In the meantime, we watch peripheral European PMIs this morning and preliminary German CPI data for May. On which note, so far, a soft Saxony figure."