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3 Jun 2014
Corrected ISM deemed as decent - Societe Generale
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale, believes yesterday final release of the US ISM falls within the decent ranges.
Key Quotes
"An utterly shambolic release of US manufacturing ISM data was concluded with ‘correct' data being sent out after a research firm spotted that the wrong month's seasonal adjustments had been used. The US ISM release is however, both the earliest and one of the best guides to what the US economy is doing and by the time we get tomorrow's non-manufacturing data (covering the larger part of the economy) we expect to have received confirmation that the weakness in the first quarter was indeed, down to the weather."
"For the record, the ISM has averaged 52.1 over the last 20 years, while quarterly GDP growth has averaged 3.2%, so the 55.4 outcome is ‘decent'. In a 'new normal' world it may signal an underlying trend that's a long way below 3%, but it doesn't fit in with the idea that the Q1 GDP fall signalled a deeper malaise or that the Fed should now be reversing the tapering of QE."
Key Quotes
"An utterly shambolic release of US manufacturing ISM data was concluded with ‘correct' data being sent out after a research firm spotted that the wrong month's seasonal adjustments had been used. The US ISM release is however, both the earliest and one of the best guides to what the US economy is doing and by the time we get tomorrow's non-manufacturing data (covering the larger part of the economy) we expect to have received confirmation that the weakness in the first quarter was indeed, down to the weather."
"For the record, the ISM has averaged 52.1 over the last 20 years, while quarterly GDP growth has averaged 3.2%, so the 55.4 outcome is ‘decent'. In a 'new normal' world it may signal an underlying trend that's a long way below 3%, but it doesn't fit in with the idea that the Q1 GDP fall signalled a deeper malaise or that the Fed should now be reversing the tapering of QE."