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4 Jun 2014
Cautiousness prevails around the EUR - Societe Generale
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale, warns about the current EUR weakness pre-ECB.
Key Quotes
"The memory of profitable short yen trades leads to enthusiasm to buy USD/JPY as it moves higher, helping the move extend. By contrast, EUR/USD weakness is greeted with caution."
"The market's Euro shorts at the time of the ECB rate cuts in 2013 were much smaller than those a less psychologically-scarred trading community took in 2010 and 2012. Just another reason why Mr Draghi's Euro-bearish message is struggling to find followers and why despite believing EUR/USD will trade down to 1.20 over the next couple of years, I am cautious about how and when to sell the Euro."
"Will this prevent further weakness or lead to a case of double-bluff? Sebastien Galy is trying to answer this question by surveying our readers on https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/M3TQPYQ 4 quick questions, results out first thing tomorrow."
Key Quotes
"The memory of profitable short yen trades leads to enthusiasm to buy USD/JPY as it moves higher, helping the move extend. By contrast, EUR/USD weakness is greeted with caution."
"The market's Euro shorts at the time of the ECB rate cuts in 2013 were much smaller than those a less psychologically-scarred trading community took in 2010 and 2012. Just another reason why Mr Draghi's Euro-bearish message is struggling to find followers and why despite believing EUR/USD will trade down to 1.20 over the next couple of years, I am cautious about how and when to sell the Euro."
"Will this prevent further weakness or lead to a case of double-bluff? Sebastien Galy is trying to answer this question by surveying our readers on https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/M3TQPYQ 4 quick questions, results out first thing tomorrow."