NFP: EUR/USD at risk of falling below 1.15 as the data goes, so too will the dollar – TDS

US labour market recovery picked up steam in October. We only saw a modest lift to the USD post payrolls, but economists at TD Securities view this as consistent with their bias that the data, valuation and positioning are supportive of further firmness in the weeks ahead.

NFP picked up again

“The data were strong, with payrolls up 531K (604K for the private sector), revisions adding another 235K, unemployment dropping 0.2pt to 4.6%, and hourly earnings up 0.4% MoM and 4.9% YoY. The one disappointing part was the participation rate, which was flat.”

“It's not that we look for an impulsive shift higher in the USD, but rather, more consistent with the idea that the USD is better positioned in the weeks ahead from a data, valuation and positioning point of view.”

“We think the bias will be for a broad grind higher in the USD, in line with the seasonal trend observed in the month of November.”

“We think EUR/USD is at risk of slipping below 1.15.”