India: GDP seen expanding 8.5% in FY2021/22 – UOB

Barnabas Gan, Economist at UOB, assesses the recently published GDP figures in India.

Key Takeaways

“India’s GDP expanded 5.4% y/y in the third quarter of its fiscal year (3QFY2021/22: Oct – Dec 2021). This is against market expectations for a faster growth pace of 5.9% y/y, even as GDP growth in 2QFY2021/22 was revised higher to 8.5% y/y.”

“Accounting for the latest data, the National Statistics Office downgraded India’s current fiscal year growth to 8.9%, from an earlier estimate of 9.2%. Meanwhile, the GVA is expected to grow 8.3% this fiscal year.”

“Into 4QFY2021/22 (Jan – Mar 2022) and the year ahead, we think that the macroeconomic backdrop remains challenging to India. We keep to our full-year growth outlook of 8.5% in FY2021/22, although GDP is likely to slow to 7.5% in FY2022/23.”