Upside risks to the JPY, but downside risks to the CHF – HSBC

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is likely to recover in 2024 while the Swiss Franc (CHF) is likely to extend its year-to-date weakness, economists at HSBC say.

SNB surprisingly cut its rate

Looking beyond the near-term reaction, we think the US-Japan yield differential is set to narrow, this, among other factors, should provide support for the JPY.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) delivered a dovish surprise on 21 March with a 25 bps rate cut. After the announcement, the CHF extended its year-to-date weakness. Being the first G10 central bank to cut is likely to undermine the currency, as markets may fund carry trades out of CHF in a world of low FX volatility.